Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
